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20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World

The book is built around a simple but powerful insight: The key to making better strategic choices in turbulent markets lies in understanding the level of uncertainty faced in a given situation. The author argues that most executives suffer from an all-or-nothing view of strategy in which future events are either certain or uncertain. Instead, 20/20 Foresight comes from learning to separate what can be known from what can't and then using that residual uncertainty to tailor every aspect of the decision-making process. Based on a large-scale review of the strategy problems faced by leading companies, Courtney provides a framework for diagnosing which of the four levels of uncertainty a specific business decision corresponds to. Then, he shows how this level of uncertainty defines the tools, frameworks and strategic planning processes the decision-maker should use when crafting answers to three key strategic questions:

1) Should one attempt to shape or adapt to uncertainty?

2) Make strategic commitments now or later?

3) Follow a focused or diversified strategy? Applicable to businesses in every industry, this essential guide presents an integrated approach to building and sustaining winning strategies in a changing world.

206 pages