NATIONAL SECURITY FORECAST POLISH PERSPECTIVE ŚWIEBODA H. GRENDA B. GROCHMALSKI P. Bankowa.pl

National security forecast

Polish perspective

The reviewed monograph has both cognitive and practical value. The cognitive value results from the authors' scientific analysis of significant problems that have not yet been researched. The utilitarian value of the publication is expressed in the form of the presentation of forecasts, which perform an important social role, i.e. they provide the foundation for strategic foundation, long-term planning and decision-making. Furthermore, they lay the grounds for the forthcoming changes, help to become accustomed to them. The forecasts presented in the monograph produce specific recommendations for appropriate reaction to risks, threats and challenges, which allows to exert influence on the future.

Prof. dr hab. inż. Grzegorz Sobolewski

The reviewed monograph is a groundbreaking publication on the Polish publishing market. A group of leading scientists have undertaken an incredibly difficult task to investigate the Polish raison d'état. The task has been fully performed. Not only have the authors defined Polish national interest but they have also elaborated the challenges and threats faced by Poland and produced a forecast horizon for up to 2025.

Dr hab. Arkadiusz Czwołek
ntroduction

Situations Affecting Safety
Introduction
Identification of unstable NATO situations
Summary

Part I. Sovereignty and Raison D‘etat of Poland in the Perspective of 2025
Scenario I
Scenario II
Scenario III
Scenario IV
Summary

Part II. Main Unknows (Uncertainties)

Part III. Analysis of Current Situation in Selected Areas
I. Diagnosis of the State of Economic Security Indicators
II. Diagnosis of energy and ecological safety
III. Diagnosis of social security
IV. Diagnosis of military security
V. Possibility of armed conflict occurrence
VI. Diagnosis of the political and geopolitical dimension
VI. Diagnosis of cultural security
VII. Diagnosis of digital security (cybernetic security)

Part IV. Scenarios of Strategie Games

Conclusion

Bibliography

List of Tables

Charts index

Appendix 1. Cyberattack scenario

Annex 2. Translation of scenario considerations visualization

Annex 3. Project of creating a scenario "creator"

Annex 4 The screening research project carried out as part of the Foresight
project

220 pages, Paperback

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